Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Trust Your Gut

At the end of March I suggested that I should put my cash in a gold ETF. At that point the gold price was about $560/oz. Since then it hit $725 although it has now (in the last few days) tanked to about $622/oz. But I bought a house instead.

said a couple of weeks ago that "I am almost certain that the 2nd Quarter BER Business Confidence index will indicate a decline in economic confidence." Today this is confirmed in an article in Business Day.

I find that my gut feel and intuition on these sort of things is normally fairly on target and yet I do not seem to be able to apply this to my benefit at all.

My other big intuition is my "proliferation of golf estates as a precursor of a global market crash" theory. Based on a similar pattern that occurred in the boom times of late 1920's. (I was alerted to this through a antique book collecting article about people who collect the glossy property prospectuses from that time - although at that time they were for equestrian & polo estates. Virtually all of these estates vanished in the 1930's depression). Now how different was this to what is happening here & now with golf and polo estates popping up all over the place?

ee cummings is right I think. Just trust your gut.

since feeling is first
who pays any attention
to the syntax of things
will never wholly kiss you

PS Croatia will win the World Cup & Peter Crouch (more on him to follow) will be the new god of England football.


Third World Ant said...

Hello Wit - for someone with big deadlines you post a hell of a lot! I'm totally with you on the gut and intuition thing - even when I have physical proof I never apply any to my benefit, complete laziness on my part. For my (disagreeable) two cents worth - the frenzied building of opulent entertainment facilities signals an economic boom, and is it not inevitable that after a big boom, at some time will come a crash?

PS I am happy if Croatia win - any team but Brazil! The Italians will have far too much catching up to do in the future, otherwise! Here's hoping your intuition is spot on...

ATW said...

I also frustratingly spend a lot of time having to hurry up and wait. :-)